Introduction: It is hard for any tech company, large or small, to make a decisive pivot towards or away from virtual reality and augmented reality. In the case of one of the largest companies in the global IT industry, Microsoft, the same difficult decisions are painfully visible and will likely make 2024 another wasted year for these technologies.
Article: Like any massive tech company, Microsoft is constantly eager to diversify its portfolio. For years now, a business that was synonymous with the biggest personal computer operating system in the world branched out into many domains. Possibly the biggest leap for the company came suddenly at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, when its collaborative communication tool, Microsoft Teams, really took off. The same goes for the subscription-based MS Office package, which also managed to pivot drastically from the old-fashioned premium price model.
All of this shows that Microsoft has what it takes to evolve and change, especially under the current CEO and chairman Satya Nadella. When Nadella took over from Steve Ballmer, a very traditional, 1990s CEO back in 2014, he promised a change of direction for Microsoft. He fully delivered on that, but the present period shows that the company still has some unknown regions on the map of its future development. Virtual reality and augmented reality technologies and services are potentially the biggest ones in that category. Based on events from the past couple of months, Microsoft seems it does not know where the winds of VR and AR change are blowing and is unwilling to bet on anything future direction. At the same time, it is also not prepared to fully scrap all projects from this field, leaving future development in a state of protracted limbo.
Shutdown of Mixed Reality
At the end of 2023, Microsoft decided to pull the plug on one of the bigger AR development projects. That was the mixed reality feature that was part of the Windows ecosystem from 2017, covering both VR and AR applications. It allowed users to access a range of solutions for pairing their computers with VR headsets. But, as the world entered 2024, the company decided that it was time to leave mixed reality Windows in the past. The move not only made many headsets virtually useless for the core Windows ecosystem but left them accessible to niche products like video games that are available for this OS. It also sent a strong signal to the developer community that Microsoft and Windows might not be the best solution for their future products, especially those from the business space.
Microsoft Mesh Launch
Less than a month from the moment Microsoft shut down its mixed reality feature, the company decided to launch a new service inside of its Teams ecosystem. The service, which began working in January 2024, allows Teams users to enter into virtual, 3D spaces and conduct their interactions with one another. The same feature is available for both VR headsets and those using Teams meetings on regular PC monitors. The Microsoft Mesh also allows for customizable environments and even some simplified games, including quizzes and things like bean bag tossing. Presently, only a handful of companies and organizations are using Mesh, including Accenture, Mercy Ships, and Takeda Pharmaceuticals. However, more importantly, the launch of this service once more underlines that Microsoft is not able or willing to approach VR space with any degree of long-term cross-company consistency.
HoloLens Dilemma
The effect of Apple Vision Pro in the recent period has been more than clear – regardless of the headset’s usability and effectiveness, it managed to stir the interest of the wider public. From numerous memes to viral videos of Vision Pro functionalities, the new line of Apple products clearly got people talking. No VR or AR headset managed to do that in years, and Microsoft Hololens is a testament to that fact. Launched in 2016, Hololens did not manage to excite the customers, both individual and business ones. In 2019, its second generation called Hololens 2 came out, scoring some big organizational users, like the US military, but again, failed to move the needle on the global VR and AR adoption gauge.
Besides that, HoloLens 2 is presently selling for 3,500 USD, placing it in the same price range as Vision Pro. Furthermore, Microsoft is neither confirming nor denying that HoloLens 3 will happen. Instead, Scott Evans, Microsoft’s Vice President of MR, simply stated back in 2022 that the new model of this AR device will come about when the technology is ready. Having in mind the erratic closures and launches of Microsoft VR and AR services and headsets, that could mean just about anything.
2024 as a Gap Year
No matter the dissonant information that Microsoft is presenting related to these technologies, it is clear that nothing major will happen with the company this year. Instead, Nadella and the rest of the management team will watch carefully what lasting impact is Vision Pro making in the coming months. If the calculation swings towards greater augmented reality adoption and even VR features, Microsoft might get serious about this tech in 2025 and beyond. If Vision Pro turns out to be a fad like Google Glass, chances are high that HoloLens 3 might never see the light of day.
Author:
Ivica Milaric
Game designer and game design teacher at the Academy of Arts, Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia